Vegetation condition index: A proxy weather parameter in land suitability analysis

Abstract

The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), an extension of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a useful model for detecting crop yield productivity, yield prediction and climate modelling. It approximates the rainfall component of weather in NDVI value and allows the quantifying of the impact of rainfall on maize crop. In view of the of the recurrent problem of food insecurity, the thrust of this research was to use the VCI-drydekads in Ward 36 of Mberengwa District to determine the land suitability potential of the area with regard to maize crops. Maize crop performance is a function of critical variables which include rainfall and soil nutrients. The VCI was used to detect maize crop land suitability by calculating the number of VCI-drydekads under rain-fed maize, and Land Utilisation Type (LUT) along with soil map analysis by virtue of the Geographic Information System (GIS). The exceedingly high number of VCI-drydekads and the pedological constraints show that subject to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) land suitability guidelines, Ward 36 has had the worst maize crop failure and has hence been factor- rated as currently not suitable (n1) and marginally suitable (s3) respectively. This apparently disqualified area’s land suitability potential for maize crop production (LUT). On the basis of its results, this study recommends that the Agricultural Technical and Extension Services (AGRITEX) evaluates the feasibility of relying on maize crops and proceed to advise resettled A1 farmers to implement the best diversified farming investment through such drought-tolerant varieties as sorghum and millet. Furthermore, Government should consider allocating bigger plots to A1 farmers to facilitate the commercial livestock production (LUT) of cattle, sheep and goats with subsidised loan schemes, inputs, technical support, and market networks.

This book explores some of the possibilities available for the rural peasant population of Zimbabwe in the midst of climate change induced national hardships by pursuing the following objectives: 1. identifying evidence of climate change in Zimbabwe 2.establishing adaptation and mitigation mechanisms by communities to cope with climate change and climate variability 3.evaluating the sustainability of projects that are adopted to ameliorate the impact of climate change and variability in Zimbabwe 4.Exploring the gender dynamics and challenges in efforts to adapt to climate change and variability 5.establishing the contribution of GIS and RS products in solving both environmental and climate problems for sustainable economic development. It is hoped that the fragmented survival strategies of the various communities presented in this book can inform national policy makers on the need for community involvement in all decision-making projects and programmes that are meant to benefit them. Climate change is a reality in Zimbabwe's rural communities and there is need for urgency in coming up with realistic practical programmes to avert a climate change-induced national catastrophe

Climate change is a reality of our time projected to persist for longer periods of time in future while significantly undermining peoples’ livelihoods, particularly the livelihoods of rural communities that are primarily dependent on agriculture and located in Zimbabwe’s fragile Agro-Ecological Zones 3, 4 and 5. In this light, climate change adaptation is considered a high priority, key-response strategy that can be used to cope with the adverse effects of the changing climate at both domestic and international levels. In order to determine whether adaptation projects have reduced climate change impacts and human exposure and vulnerability to climate change and increased the resilience of livelihoods to the adverse effects of climate change, this study assessed the merits of climate change adaptation projects in enhancing the livelihoods of the rural smallholder farming communities of Chipinge South District in Zimbabwe. Conservation farming, the cultivation of drought-tolerant small grains, the rearing of small livestock, the establishment of field water harvesting structures, the development of small-scale community irrigation schemes and community gardens, the planting of short-season crop varieties, crop diversification and cotton production are some of the identified climate change adaptation strategies and projects adopted by smallholder farmers in the district. The study concludes that the climate change adaptation projects implemented in Chipinge South District are largely wanting with regard to significantly enhancing the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. This is attributed to constraints such as the challenging nature of climate change, the lack of financial resources and sufficient data to fully assess the vulnerability of livelihoods.

While climate change and variability is a topical issue to scholars and researchers alike, it is also of interest to ordinary people in most rural communities. Climate change impact on agriculture, the backbone of Zimbabwe’s economy, has ripple effects on people’s livelihoods. Given that men and women are affected differently and react differently to climate change impact, this paper sought to assess the various ways in which climate change and variability impact men and women, directly and indirectly. It also sought to explore the dynamic and complex nature of the different male and female adaptation and mitigation strategies. The research design is a qualitative-interpretive multiple case study of villages in the districts of South- West Zimbabwe. Purposive sampling was used to select districts, villages and focus groups, and was followed by the random selection of respondents from each group. Regarding the interviews, the selection of respondents was done through snowballing. In the data collection, the researcher used in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and direct observation. The first phase of data collection was in December 2013 with the second phase being in April to May 2014. Marxist-feminist, eco-feminist and human adaptation theories inform this paper as its philosophical foundation. The results of this study reveal that women are more vulnerable to climate change impact because of the nature of their economic activities, their poverty and the socio-cultural realities imposed on them by society as well as their lack of information on new agricultural technologies. The paper recommends that in the period preceding adaptation and mitigation, gender dynamics and their associated complexities be considered. Being different, men and women react differently to climate change. Accordingly, agricultural extension officers and other stakeholders in the climate change impact arena should be made aware of these gender dynamics. Education and training in the form of practical lessons and the use of local languages should be emphasised during adaptation and mitigation training.

This study assessed small-scale-farmer adaptation startegies in the Chipinge district of Zimbabwe’s Manicaland Province. The research used qualitative and quantitative methods (triangulation) through a case study methodology wherein farmers in Ward 28 were used as research participants. In selecting samples, this study employed probability sampling and non-probability sampling methods. The primary data were collected through questionnaires, interviews with key informants, focus group discussions and direct observation. Secondary data were mainly obtained from the Meteorological Services Department and used to do trend analyses of climate variables in the study area. The results show that average annual rainfall has decreased by approximately 20% over the last century. The average annual mean maximum temperature statistical data from 1962-2004 show an increase of approximately 2°C. The mean annual minimum temperature increased by approximately 2.5°C. The mean annual minimum temperature data from 1962-2004 also showed a general warming trend of 0.05°C per year. The study found that climate change has severely affected farmers’ livelihoods. Crop and livestock production are negatively affected by climate change due to the long recurrent droughts. The study revealed a variety of traditional coping strategies used by local farmers and applied with mixed success, thereby suggesting that local traditional knowledge could provide the basis for developing more effective strategies. The study recommends the need by government departments, policy makers and international development agencies to incorporate the indigenous knowledge of local people in climate change adaptation policies and strategies that can develop effective, cost-effective, participatory and sustainable adaptation strategies. However, not all indigenous practices are beneficial to the community; therefore, it is paramount to first scrutinize the robustness of a strategy before adopting it for climate change adaptation.