AN EVALUATION OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT FOR DISASTER PREVENTION: A CASE OF GOKWE TOWN, ZIMBABWE

Abstract

Throughout the world, urban areas are becoming increasingly exposed to both natural and human-induced disasters, yet their causes, impacts and control have not been sufficiently evaluated. This thesis on urban development sustainability for disaster prevention is based on a case study with a population of 8118 from which a sample size of 229 was drawn using Cochran’s sample size determination formula and the 30% rule. A mixed methods analytic case study was conducted to evaluate the sustainability of Gokwe Town. The study used questionnaires, semi structured interviews, desktop sources and focus group discussions. Modified Fuzzy Delphi Method and Analytic Hierarchy process were applied in the design of research tools and data analysis. Site suitability as an indicator of sustainability was investigated through use of Saaty and Vergas’ (2001) AHP, soil’s chemical, physical and geotechnical properties as well as through remote sensing and GIS. Legal conformance and disaster risk reduction as stimulators of sustainable urban development were investigated using questionnaires and interviews. Statistical tests of significance were conducted. T-tests results reveal that there is a significant (p < 0,16375) relationship between gully depth and soil clay content at 5% significance level, indicating that low clay content is a major cause of gully erosion in Gokwe town. Challenges and potentialities to Gokwe Town disaster risks were assessed and analysed using Urban Disaster Risk Reduction Index based on the 2015-2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and Sustainable Development Goal 11’s (DG11’s) 10 targets. Focus group discussions highlighted that sustainable town planning is the one that brings about continuous improvement in the standard of living of both the rich and poor people such that for Gokwe Town to achieve sustainable status there must be a clear improvement in living conditions for all its residents. Current Gokwe Town developments were described as unsustainable, just increasing houses and population without a corresponding increase in industries and employment. However, all focus groups unanimously concurred that Gokwe Town can achieve Sustainable Development (SD) by adopting an all-inclusive development approach. Quantitative data was statistically analysed and presented using tables, graphs and percentages. Site suitability evaluation showed that the current Central Business District (CBD) site is not suitable as it scored mean score of 2.2 (strongly unsustainable). Four (4) out of 7 services scored below 5 (sustainability threshold). Road quality and water supply mean scores were 1.6 and 2.4 respectively showing that they are the greatest hindrances to sustainable development of Gokwe Town. Town planning and development legal frameworks scored 4.8, which is below sustainability threshold used in this study. Urban development legal framework analysis established Gokwe Town community regulatory awareness as 62.32%, 66.12% and 75, 27% for the low, medium and high-density residential areas respectively. However, levels of compliance were highest in low-density residential areas. The thesis concluded that urban disasters are negative consequences of poorly planned and weakly monitored human interactions with the natural or built environment. One of the two key recommendations made was that, to achieve sustainable development, there is need to infuse suitability analysis and policy framework into urban planning approaches to enable proactive disaster prevention. The other one was that, urban planners and developers must be equipped with knowledge and skills on technological-based site suitability analysis, disaster prevention measures and legal framework interpretation. In short, sustainable urban development cannot be divorced from effective planning, suitability analysis, legal compliance and disaster risk management.